Only knowing what you know

Mandelbrot's protege strikes again

Another crazy rant

I have been shunned by some of my friends over the last two years because my opinions on our current state of affairs bothers them(although the ones who followed my investment advice are pretty happy about it(After all my 401k is up this year and last, how's yours doing?))

Their is a lot to be hopeful about in our lifetimes. The rate of technological progress is amazing. We have the technology to harness the sun and wind to a level which would allow endless energy to the whole world. Food can be grown in plenty and we could easily have a world with tens of billions of people.  BioTech will probably cure most cancer. The next stage of Bell’s Law has kicked in and we have figured out how to leverage masses of commodity hardware to work on a single problem(just like VMS!). Unlicensed radio will soon alleviate the need for any centralized communication systems. Finance has reached levels of complexity to allow the democracy of capital to provide a standard of living to the entire world that is unimaginable. 

Their are some scary parts, bioengineering will be a great blessing and a terrible curse, for instance the babies born 15 years from now will have amazing genes. This will provide for even more accelerated progress. But the old may feel useless. Continued acceleration in industrial power will allow even the smallest nations  to build the bomb. Not to mention a technological singularity which will frighten all those who lived lives before it? America, a great and moral nation has reached levels of power to provide safety to much of the world, but at what cost?

However, we need to face where we are. The economies of the world are in serious trouble because we as a society wont standup for what we know is right. In fact, I can't even talk about history or today’s finance without being shunned as a Cassandra screaming at the sky. Liberty and Freedom are being attacked at a rate in the US  on levels that I never expected from the Obama presidency (who i voted for btw). People are panicking and others are just tuning out.

 We must unite as a society, not with faith or hope, or happy feelings, but with knowledge.Facts never moved politicians or motivated the masses but they can save us. You may think I am depressing, crazy, paranoid, or just annoying but I will not shut up. If we reject reality because it is not convenient  we will fail, society will fail. But if we take the bull by the horns, learn what we cannot know and act with wisdom we can succeed.

Morton's Fork

From wikipidia: Morton's Fork is a coup in contract bridge that forces an opponent to choose between letting declarer establish one or more extra tricks in the suit led, and losing the opportunity to win any trick in that suit. It takes its name from the expression Morton's Fork^[1].